Public Opinion Strategies for Robin Hayes and the NRCC (8/4-5, likely voters):
Larry Kissell (D): 40
Robin Hayes (R-inc): 50
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Kissell released his own internal poll of this race back in June, and in that survey (by Anzalone Liszt), Hayes trailed Kissell by two points.
Hayes’ spread isn’t far off from the most recent poll we’ve seen of this race, by Public Policy Polling last month. That poll showed Hayes leading by seven points and resting well under the 50% mark (43-36).
SSPers have already pointed out that Kissell’s name recognition seems artificially low in this poll — his favorability is at 14-11. While it is generally true that running and losing a House campaign doesn’t buy you as much name recognition as some might expect (which I think may be especially true for a low-money, under-the-radar type of candidate in Larry Kissell), I do agree that these numbers seem a bit too low, especially when you consider that Hayes launched a round of unanswered attack ads earlier this summer against Kissell. (Indeed, PPP’s July poll showed Kissell with 52% name recognition.) If we are to take Hayes’ poll at face value, his ads had little effect in driving up Kissell’s negatives. Can you say “waste of money”?
Another important data point to note is the date range of the poll. The poll ended on August 5th, the same day that Kissell began his first ad buy of the campaign. (That ad is available for viewing here.)
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.
(H/T: JeremiahTheMessiah)
The PPP poll from July was conducted the 2nd through the 5th, which might have effected the results, although its hard to tell which way.
Just as important though, their poll gave 7% to Bob Barr and 7% to the Libertarian running in the 8th. And while that might be accurate now, I doubt those results will hold through November.
These numbers are disappointing, but I guess this is what you get from internals. I can only hope that Kissell closes the gap and wins on Election Day. Go Kissell.
I posted this on the other thread that initially discussed this poll, but it is pertinent here.
DCCC $$$, Positive Registration Trends
DCCC money will help Kissell with his name recognition. How much are they gonna spend here – $1.6 million?
Voter registration in NC is also trending blue this year. 295,000 voters have been added to the rolls so far in 2008, including:
DEM: 162,000
UNA: 114,000
REP: 19,000
Updated registration numbers are available by County, but not by Congressional District. NC-8 includes 5 entire counties and parts of 5 others.
For the 5 counties that are entirely within NC-8 (30% of the total reg. voters), 5,300 new voters have been added this year, including:
DEM: 2,733
UNA: 1,900
REP: 667
NC-8 may be R+3, but it was drawn by the legislature with a Democrat in mind. Party registration as of 1/1/08 was:
DEM: 48.9%
REP: 30.3%
UNA: 20.8%
Also as of 1/1/80, by registration, the district was:
67.5% White
27.5% Black
5% Other
This is a district Kissell can win.